PSO based Neural Networks vs. Traditional Statistical Models for Seasonal Time Series Forecasting

Seasonality is a distinctive characteristic which is often observed in many practical time series. Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) are a class of promising models for efficiently recognizing and forecasting seasonal patterns. In this paper, the Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) approach is used to enhance the forecasting strengths of feedforward ANN (FANN) as well as Elman ANN (EANN) models for seasonal data. Three widely popular versions of the basic PSO algorithm, viz. Trelea-I, Trelea-II and Clerc-Type1 are considered here. The empirical analysis is conducted on three real-world seasonal time series. Results clearly show that each version of the PSO algorithm achieves notably better forecasting accuracies than the standard Backpropagation (BP) training method for both FANN and EANN models. The neural network forecasting results are also compared with those from the three traditional statistical models, viz. Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA), Holt-Winters (HW) and Support Vector Machine (SVM). The comparison demonstrates that both PSO and BP based neural networks outperform SARIMA, HW and SVM models for all three time series datasets. The forecasting performances of ANNs are further improved through combining the outputs from the three PSO based models.Comment: 4 figures, 4 tables, 31 references, conference proceeding

Ready-to-use post-Newtonian gravitational waveforms for binary black holes with non-precessing spins: An update

For black-hole binaries whose spins are (anti-) aligned with respect to the orbital angular momentum of the binary, we compute the frequency domain phasing coefficients including the quadratic-in-spin terms up to the third post-Newtonian (3PN) order, the cubic-in-spin terms at the leading order, 3.5PN, and the spin-orbit effects up to the 4PN order. In addition, we obtain the 2PN spin contributions to the amplitude of the frequency-domain gravitational waveforms for non-precessing binaries, using recently derived expressions for the time-domain polarization amplitudes of binaries with generic spins, complete at that accuracy level. These two results are updates to Arun et al. (2009) [1] for amplitude and Wade et al. (2013) [2] for phasing. They should be useful to construct banks of templates that model accurately non-precessing inspiraling binaries, for parameter estimation studies, and or constructing analytical template families that accounts for the inspiral-merger-ringdown phases of the binary.Comment: 8 pages, an additional file (readable in MATHEMATICA) containing all the key results included in the sourc

Gravitational-wave phasing for low-eccentricity inspiralling compact binaries to 3PN order

[abridged] Although gravitational radiation causes inspiralling compact binaries to circularize, a variety of astrophysical scenarios suggest that binaries might have small but nonnegligible orbital eccentricities when they enter the low-frequency bands of ground and space-based gravitational-wave detectors. If not accounted for, even a small orbital eccentricity can cause a potentially significant systematic error in the mass parameters of an inspiralling binary. Gravitational-wave search templates typically rely on the quasi-circular approximation, which provides relatively simple expressions for the gravitational-wave phase to 3.5 post-Newtonian (PN) order. The quasi-Keplerian formalism provides an elegant but complex description of the post-Newtonian corrections to the orbits and waveforms of inspiralling binaries with any eccentricity. Here we specialize the quasi-Keplerian formalism to binaries with low eccentricity. In this limit the non-periodic contribution to the gravitational-wave phasing can be expressed explicitly as simple functions of frequency or time, with little additional complexity beyond the well-known formulas for circular binaries. These eccentric phase corrections are computed to 3PN order and to leading order in the eccentricity for the standard PN approximants. For a variety of systems these eccentricity corrections cause significant corrections to the number of gravitational wave cycles that sweep through a detector's frequency band. This is evaluated using several measures, including a modification of the useful cycles. We also evaluate the role of periodic terms that enter the phasing and discuss how they can be incorporated into some of the PN approximants. While the eccentric extension of the PN approximants is our main objective, this work collects a variety of results that may be of interest to others modeling eccentric relativistic binaries.Comment: 49 pages, 4 figures. Submitted to Phys. Rev. D. Supplementary materials available at http://link.aps.org/supplemental/10.1103/PhysRevD.93.124061. V2: minor updates to match published versio

Analysis of rainfall data for drought investigation at Agra U.P.

This study presents analysis of droughts at Agra district of Uttar Pradesh India. Drought conditions were assessed for yearly time steps using rainfall data for thirty one years (1970 to 2000) at Agra station. According to the India Meteorological department (IMD) an area/region is considered to be drought if it receives seasonal total rainfall less than 75% of its normal value. The rainfall records of 31 years for Agra were obtained from the India Meteorological Department (IMD). Rainfall data has been subjected to various kind of analysis including seasonal & annual rainfall departures, probability distribution and dry spell analysis etc. For identification of drought years and the extent of deficit of annual rainfall, the annual rainfall departure analysis has been carried out. A year is considered as drought year if the total amount of annual rainfall over an area is deficient by more than 25% of its normal value. From the analysis it is observed that in years 1970,1986,1987,1990 and 2000 as moderate drought & years 1972 & 1979 as a severe drought occurred in Agra district, the chance of occurrence of drought in every 10 years varies from 2 to 2.5. It means that year after every 3 to 4 year is a drought year

Information and communication technology in disease surveillance, India: a case study

India has made appreciable progress and continues to demonstrate a strong commitment for establishing and operating a disease surveillance programme responsive to the requirements of the International Health Regulations (IHR[2005]). Within five years of its launch, India has effectively used modern information and communication technology for collection, storage, transmission and management of data related to disease surveillance and effective response. Terrestrial and/or satellite based linkages are being established within all states, districts, state-run medical colleges, infectious disease hospitals, and public health laboratories. This network enables speedy data transfer, video conferencing, training and e-learning for outbreaks and programme monitoring. A 24x7 call centre is in operation to receive disease alerts. To complement these efforts, a media scanning and verification cell functions to receive reports of early warning signals. During the 2009 H1N1 outbreak, the usefulness of the information and communication technology (ICT) network was well appreciated. India is using ICT as part of its Integrated Disease Surveillance Project (IDSP) to help overcome the challenges in further expansion in hard-to-reach populations, to increase the involvement of the private sector, and to increase the use of other modes of communication like e-mail and voicemail

On Walsh Spectrum of Cryptographic Boolean Function

Walsh transformation of a Boolean function ascertains a number of cryptographic properties of the Boolean function viz, non-linearity, bentness, regularity, correlation immunity and many more. The functions, for which the numerical value of Walsh spectrum is fixed, constitute a class of Boolean functions known as bent functions. Bent functions possess maximum possible non-linearity and therefore have a significant role in design of cryptographic systems. A number of generalisations of bent function in different domains have been proposed in the literature. General expression for Walsh transformation of generalised bent function (GBF) is derived. Using this condition, a set of Diophantine equations whose solvability is a necessary condition for the existence of GBF is also derived. Examples to demonstrate how these equations can be utilised to establish non-existence and regularity of GBFs is presented